Comparing these two results leads to a more significant conclusion than a simple narrative of uninterrupted success: the Polish sector has achieved significant scale and a solid position in European supply chains, but further growth will be more challenging, more selective, and dependent on cost, regulatory, and logistical resilience.
A Record Year, a Slower Start to the Next
According to data from the National Center for Agricultural Support, compiled based on preliminary data from the Ministry of Finance, the value of agri-food exports from Poland in 2025 amounted to 58.4 billion euros, or approximately 248 billion zlotys. By comparison, in 2004, the value of exports was 5.2 billion euros. The 2025 figure was 8.6% higher than the previous year. Imports rose to 38.6 billion euros, and the trade surplus increased to 19.8 billion euros1.
The Central Statistical Office (GUS) reports exports of 247.9 billion PLN, imports of 163.7 billion PLN, and a surplus of 84.2 billion PLN for the same period; these figures are also preliminary. It is worth noting that the Central Statistical Office (GUS) reports a 6.7% increase in exports, while the National Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (KOWR) reports an 8.6% increase. This is not a contradiction, as the first figure was calculated in zlotys and the second in euros. This may seem like a technical detail, but it is significant for assessing exporters’ performance in a year of fluctuating exchange rates. Agri-food products accounted for 16% of Poland’s total merchandise exports2.
The full results for 2025 demonstrate the sector’s strength, while data for January–May 2026 signal a change in pace. During this period, exports reached 24.1 billion euros, or 102 billion zlotys, and increased by 1.6% year-over-year. Imports decreased by 1%, to 16.3 billion euros, resulting in a 7.5% increase in the trade balance, to 7.8 billion euros. By comparison, in the corresponding period of 2025, export revenues increased by 9.4%3.
Five-month data should not be annualized or directly compared with the entire year of 2025. However, it can be viewed as a clear signal that Polish exports have not entered a decline, but their growth rate has clearly normalized. In this situation, the structure of sales, profitability, and the ability to expand beyond the most saturated markets take on greater significance.
Europe Remains the Cornerstone
The European Union remains the most important market for Polish food products. In 2025, agri-food goods worth 43.9 billion euros were exported to EU countries, accounting for 75% of the sector’s total exports. Sales to the EU market increased by 10% year-over-year. Non-EU countries accounted for the remaining 14.5 billion euros and 25% of exports, with sales growth there at 3%4.
The EU market’s position is even more evident at the country level. Germany imported goods worth 14.8 billion euros, or one-quarter of all Polish agri-food exports. The next largest markets in the EU were France with €4.0 billion, the Netherlands with €3.4 billion, and the Czech Republic with €2.9 billion. The largest market outside the EU was the United Kingdom, with exports totaling 4.4 billion euros, followed by Ukraine with 1.2 billion euros and the United States with 838 million euros. The five largest markets – Germany, France, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, and the United Kingdom – together accounted for about half of the value of sales5.
Such a large share of the EU market is often portrayed primarily as a concentration risk. This is only part of the picture. The single market reduces some transaction barriers, facilitates logistics, shortens supply chains, and enables large-scale sales growth. Geographical proximity and the integration of Polish companies into European retail networks are a real source of competitive advantage. The risk arises when dependence on a few customers makes it difficult to offset weaker demand in key markets.
This situation is partly evident in 2026. In the first five months, sales to the EU totaled 17.8 billion euros and increased by only 0.4%. Exports to Germany fell by 3%, as did those to the Netherlands. At the same time, sales outside the EU rose by 5% to 6.3 billion euros, and their share increased to 26%6. This does not yet signal a permanent reversal of the balance, but it shows that third countries can serve as an important second engine of growth.
However, this diversification should be interpreted with caution. High growth rates in a smaller market may result from individual contracts, a low base, or short-term price changes. For example, between January and May 2026, exports to Turkey rose by 61%, mainly due to a sharp increase in beef sales. This is an interesting trend, but it is not proof that the entire geographic structure has already changed permanently. More sustainable diversification means repeat sales across several categories, a stable distribution network, and the ability to meet local requirements over multiple seasons.
Meat Leads the Way, but the Strength Lies in the Breadth of the Offering
The structure of Polish exports is not based on a single product. In 2025, the largest group consisted of meat, meat products, and live animals: 12.8 billion euros, or 22% of total agri-food sales. Grain and grain products accounted for 6.4 billion euros and 11%, tobacco and tobacco products for 5.8 billion euros and 10%, and sugar and confectionery products for 4.9 billion euros and 8%. Next were dairy products at 3.9 billion euros and fish and fish products at 3.4 billion euros7.
In common parlance, this entire basket is often referred to as food exports, although official agri-food statistics also include tobacco. This distinction is important, especially when comparing data across reports or assessing the share of individual segments.
A key strength is the share of processed products. In the cereals group, as much as 71% of the export value came from cereal and flour products, while in the sugar and confectionery group, 88% consisted of confectionery products. This means that Poland’s export offering is not limited to the sale of raw materials. A large portion of the value is generated through processing, recipes, packaging, and the ability to supply finished products to the retail sector and the foodservice industry8.
This is not a feature unique to the Polish market. In 2025, foodstuffs accounted for 57% of the value of EU agricultural exports to countries outside the Union9. However, the growth was not uniform. In 2025, the value of exports of meat, meat products, and live animals increased by 18%, fruit by 16%, and juices also by 16%. Sales of grains and grain products decreased by 1%. In the first five months of 2026, the value of dairy product exports to the EU fell by 16%, while poultry sales continued to rise10. The sector is thus broad, but individual categories are in different phases of the price and demand cycle.
Where Does Competitiveness Come From?
The first source of competitive advantage is the scale of the agricultural base. Eurostat estimated the value of Poland’s agricultural production in 2025 at 45.5 billion euros, ranking fifth in the European Union11. While this is not a measure of the value of the food industry or exports, it illustrates the size of the country’s raw material base. Combined with a well-developed processing sector, this allows for the development of a broad product portfolio and the fulfillment of large orders.
The second factor is the country’s location within the single market. Access to EU customers, relatively short transport routes, and a presence in European supply chains facilitate scaling up sales. However, these factors do not automatically protect profit margins, as margins depend on the costs of energy, labor, raw materials, financing, and transportation, as well as on bargaining power in trade.
The third element is the ability to combine price with quality, safety, and convenience. A 2026 European Commission study conducted in eleven non-EU markets showed that quality was the most important factor in the purchase of food and beverages from the EU in each of the markets surveyed12. This result cannot be attributed solely to Polish products. However, a practical conclusion can be drawn: in third-country markets, a cost advantage alone is not enough. Consistent quality, reliable origin, appropriate packaging, and communication tailored to local consumers are becoming increasingly important.
“A Polish product can win on quality, but only once it becomes part of the consumer’s daily habits. The true test of export success is not simply the product’s presence on a foreign store shelf, but whether the customer adds it back to their shopping list after the first purchase,” says Kamil Janiszewski, co-founder of Listonic.
Value is not the same as volume
To assess export performance, it is necessary to distinguish between prices and the volume of products sold. The average FAO food price index in 2025 was 4.3% higher than the previous year. Prices for dairy products rose by an average of 13.2%, meat by 5.1%, and vegetable oils by 17.1%. At the same time, the cereal price index fell by 4.9%, and the sugar price index by 17%13. Global price conditions may therefore have accounted for part of the increase in the value of Polish exports, although their significance varied across categories.
The exchange rate has a similar effect. KOWR notes that in 2025, the strengthening of the zloty against the dollar limited the growth of sales to third countries. In the first months of 2026, a more favorable euro-to-zloty exchange rate for exporters, in turn, supported the performance of the entire sector14. In practice, this means that a nominal record does not necessarily translate directly into improved profitability for every exporter.
A New Landscape of Challenges
In its short-term forecast for agricultural markets, the European Commission highlights high input and energy costs, trade tensions, weather volatility, and animal diseases. Demand remains relatively resilient, but pressure on margins is high15. Although the forecast applies to the EU market as a whole, it has dual significance for Polish exporters. First, it affects costs and the continuity of supply. Second, even a brief disruption caused by disease or weather can alter the availability of raw materials, prices, and the ability to fulfill contracts.
In markets outside the EU, there are additional barriers to entry. Sanitary and phytosanitary requirements, certification, testing, labeling, product composition, and documentation vary from country to country. In its Access2Markets guide, the European Commission emphasizes that exporters must verify the rules for a specific product and market, and sometimes adapt packaging or conduct additional testing16. Geographic diversification thus increases sales potential, but at the same time raises compliance costs and operational complexity.
Environmental regulations are playing an increasingly important role. The EU Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR) will generally apply starting August 12, 2026, although some obligations will take effect later17. For food producers, this means they must review their packaging and compliance schedules, as individual obligations have different implementation deadlines.
In turn, the EUDR introduces due diligence obligations for selected supply chains related to, among other things, cattle, cocoa, coffee, soy, and palm oil, as well as their derivative products. The regulation is set to apply to large and medium-sized operators as of December 30, 2026, and to most micro and small entities as of June 30, 202718. It does not apply to the entire food sector, but within the covered categories, it increases the importance of traceability and data on the origin of raw materials.
Where to Look for Further Growth
The most realistic scenario does not involve replacing the EU market with third countries. Europe will remain the foundation of Polish exports due to the scale of demand, proximity, and the integration of supply chains. Expansion outside the EU should rather complement this foundation and reduce vulnerability to the weakening of individual markets.
In practice, this means selecting markets where Polish products have a genuine competitive advantage in terms of product quality, logistics, or price. Refrigerated products with a short shelf life require a different approach than sweets, grain products, juices, or dairy products. High sales growth should not be the sole criterion. Other factors that matter include order repeatability, sanitary barriers, promotional costs, the ability to protect margins, and the resilience of local demand.
In the European Commission’s baseline scenario, high agricultural productivity in the EU is expected to continue supporting positive trade results. The outlook through 2035 also points to pressures from climate change, the availability and prices of inputs, and global competition19.
In their baseline scenario, the OECD and FAO project a 13.3% increase in the value of global agricultural production for the group of products covered by the projection through 2035. International trade is expected to remain crucial for balancing regional supply and demand. Real international prices for agricultural products are expected to remain largely stable, though the report notes that volatility will persist20. This is not a forecast for Poland. However, it illustrates an environment in which exporters’ competitive advantage will depend less and less on simply increasing volume, and increasingly on productivity, risk management, and the ability to tailor their offerings.
A Record as a Test of Maturity
The figure of 58.4 billion euros in 2025 confirms that agri-food exports have become one of the pillars of Polish foreign trade. Its strengths lie in a large supply base, a well-developed processing sector, a broad product mix, and deep roots in the EU market. However, the start of 2026 shows that a strong market position does not automatically guarantee the continuation of double-digit growth.
In the next phase, competitive advantage will be determined not only by scale and price, but also by margin resilience, the ability to meet increasingly complex requirements, the quality of data in the supply chain, and selective diversification. A record is therefore not the finish line. It is a test of maturity for the sector, which must transform its current scale into a sustainable and more resilient position in the international market.
Jacek Białas
Growth & Brand Visibility Specialist
Listonic
Bibliography
1,4,5,7,8,10,14 National Center for Agricultural Support, “Record Exports of Agri-Food Products from Poland in 2025.”
2 Central Statistical Office, “The Country’s Socioeconomic Situation—Foreign Trade, Data for 2025.”
3,6 National Center for Agricultural Support, “Polish Food Conquers the World. Exports Have Already Exceeded 24 Billion Euros,” data for January–May 2026.
9 Eurostat, “Extra-EU Trade in Agricultural Goods,” section “Agricultural Products: Four Groups.”
11 Eurostat, “Performance of the agricultural sector”: section “Value of agricultural output.”
12 European Commission, “EU food and drinks enjoy a strong, growing reputation internationally, new flash Eurobarometer reveals.”
13 FAO, “FAO Food Price Index Dips in December Despite Higher World Cereal Prices.”
15 European Commission, “EU agricultural markets short-term outlook – summer 2026.”
16 European Commission, Access2Markets, “Guide for the export of goods.”
17 Regulation (EU) 2025/40 of the European Parliament and of the Council on packaging and packaging waste (PPWR).
18 European Commission, “Regulation on Deforestation-Free Products.”
19 European Commission, “EU Agricultural Outlook 2025–35: EU agriculture navigates challenges while embracing opportunities.”
20 OECD–FAO, “Agricultural Outlook 2026–2035.”
A Record Year, a Slower Start to the Next
According to data from the National Center for Agricultural Support, compiled based on preliminary data from the Ministry of Finance, the value of agri-food exports from Poland in 2025 amounted to 58.4 billion euros, or approximately 248 billion zlotys. By comparison, in 2004, the value of exports was 5.2 billion euros. The 2025 figure was 8.6% higher than the previous year. Imports rose to 38.6 billion euros, and the trade surplus increased to 19.8 billion euros1.
The Central Statistical Office (GUS) reports exports of 247.9 billion PLN, imports of 163.7 billion PLN, and a surplus of 84.2 billion PLN for the same period; these figures are also preliminary. It is worth noting that the Central Statistical Office (GUS) reports a 6.7% increase in exports, while the National Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (KOWR) reports an 8.6% increase. This is not a contradiction, as the first figure was calculated in zlotys and the second in euros. This may seem like a technical detail, but it is significant for assessing exporters’ performance in a year of fluctuating exchange rates. Agri-food products accounted for 16% of Poland’s total merchandise exports2.
The full results for 2025 demonstrate the sector’s strength, while data for January–May 2026 signal a change in pace. During this period, exports reached 24.1 billion euros, or 102 billion zlotys, and increased by 1.6% year-over-year. Imports decreased by 1%, to 16.3 billion euros, resulting in a 7.5% increase in the trade balance, to 7.8 billion euros. By comparison, in the corresponding period of 2025, export revenues increased by 9.4%3.
Five-month data should not be annualized or directly compared with the entire year of 2025. However, it can be viewed as a clear signal that Polish exports have not entered a decline, but their growth rate has clearly normalized. In this situation, the structure of sales, profitability, and the ability to expand beyond the most saturated markets take on greater significance.
Europe Remains the Cornerstone
The European Union remains the most important market for Polish food products. In 2025, agri-food goods worth 43.9 billion euros were exported to EU countries, accounting for 75% of the sector’s total exports. Sales to the EU market increased by 10% year-over-year. Non-EU countries accounted for the remaining 14.5 billion euros and 25% of exports, with sales growth there at 3%4.
The EU market’s position is even more evident at the country level. Germany imported goods worth 14.8 billion euros, or one-quarter of all Polish agri-food exports. The next largest markets in the EU were France with €4.0 billion, the Netherlands with €3.4 billion, and the Czech Republic with €2.9 billion. The largest market outside the EU was the United Kingdom, with exports totaling 4.4 billion euros, followed by Ukraine with 1.2 billion euros and the United States with 838 million euros. The five largest markets – Germany, France, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, and the United Kingdom – together accounted for about half of the value of sales5.
Such a large share of the EU market is often portrayed primarily as a concentration risk. This is only part of the picture. The single market reduces some transaction barriers, facilitates logistics, shortens supply chains, and enables large-scale sales growth. Geographical proximity and the integration of Polish companies into European retail networks are a real source of competitive advantage. The risk arises when dependence on a few customers makes it difficult to offset weaker demand in key markets.
This situation is partly evident in 2026. In the first five months, sales to the EU totaled 17.8 billion euros and increased by only 0.4%. Exports to Germany fell by 3%, as did those to the Netherlands. At the same time, sales outside the EU rose by 5% to 6.3 billion euros, and their share increased to 26%6. This does not yet signal a permanent reversal of the balance, but it shows that third countries can serve as an important second engine of growth.
However, this diversification should be interpreted with caution. High growth rates in a smaller market may result from individual contracts, a low base, or short-term price changes. For example, between January and May 2026, exports to Turkey rose by 61%, mainly due to a sharp increase in beef sales. This is an interesting trend, but it is not proof that the entire geographic structure has already changed permanently. More sustainable diversification means repeat sales across several categories, a stable distribution network, and the ability to meet local requirements over multiple seasons.
Meat Leads the Way, but the Strength Lies in the Breadth of the Offering
The structure of Polish exports is not based on a single product. In 2025, the largest group consisted of meat, meat products, and live animals: 12.8 billion euros, or 22% of total agri-food sales. Grain and grain products accounted for 6.4 billion euros and 11%, tobacco and tobacco products for 5.8 billion euros and 10%, and sugar and confectionery products for 4.9 billion euros and 8%. Next were dairy products at 3.9 billion euros and fish and fish products at 3.4 billion euros7.
In common parlance, this entire basket is often referred to as food exports, although official agri-food statistics also include tobacco. This distinction is important, especially when comparing data across reports or assessing the share of individual segments.
A key strength is the share of processed products. In the cereals group, as much as 71% of the export value came from cereal and flour products, while in the sugar and confectionery group, 88% consisted of confectionery products. This means that Poland’s export offering is not limited to the sale of raw materials. A large portion of the value is generated through processing, recipes, packaging, and the ability to supply finished products to the retail sector and the foodservice industry8.
This is not a feature unique to the Polish market. In 2025, foodstuffs accounted for 57% of the value of EU agricultural exports to countries outside the Union9. However, the growth was not uniform. In 2025, the value of exports of meat, meat products, and live animals increased by 18%, fruit by 16%, and juices also by 16%. Sales of grains and grain products decreased by 1%. In the first five months of 2026, the value of dairy product exports to the EU fell by 16%, while poultry sales continued to rise10. The sector is thus broad, but individual categories are in different phases of the price and demand cycle.
Where Does Competitiveness Come From?
The first source of competitive advantage is the scale of the agricultural base. Eurostat estimated the value of Poland’s agricultural production in 2025 at 45.5 billion euros, ranking fifth in the European Union11. While this is not a measure of the value of the food industry or exports, it illustrates the size of the country’s raw material base. Combined with a well-developed processing sector, this allows for the development of a broad product portfolio and the fulfillment of large orders.
The second factor is the country’s location within the single market. Access to EU customers, relatively short transport routes, and a presence in European supply chains facilitate scaling up sales. However, these factors do not automatically protect profit margins, as margins depend on the costs of energy, labor, raw materials, financing, and transportation, as well as on bargaining power in trade.
The third element is the ability to combine price with quality, safety, and convenience. A 2026 European Commission study conducted in eleven non-EU markets showed that quality was the most important factor in the purchase of food and beverages from the EU in each of the markets surveyed12. This result cannot be attributed solely to Polish products. However, a practical conclusion can be drawn: in third-country markets, a cost advantage alone is not enough. Consistent quality, reliable origin, appropriate packaging, and communication tailored to local consumers are becoming increasingly important.
“A Polish product can win on quality, but only once it becomes part of the consumer’s daily habits. The true test of export success is not simply the product’s presence on a foreign store shelf, but whether the customer adds it back to their shopping list after the first purchase,” says Kamil Janiszewski, co-founder of Listonic.
Value is not the same as volume
To assess export performance, it is necessary to distinguish between prices and the volume of products sold. The average FAO food price index in 2025 was 4.3% higher than the previous year. Prices for dairy products rose by an average of 13.2%, meat by 5.1%, and vegetable oils by 17.1%. At the same time, the cereal price index fell by 4.9%, and the sugar price index by 17%13. Global price conditions may therefore have accounted for part of the increase in the value of Polish exports, although their significance varied across categories.
The exchange rate has a similar effect. KOWR notes that in 2025, the strengthening of the zloty against the dollar limited the growth of sales to third countries. In the first months of 2026, a more favorable euro-to-zloty exchange rate for exporters, in turn, supported the performance of the entire sector14. In practice, this means that a nominal record does not necessarily translate directly into improved profitability for every exporter.
A New Landscape of Challenges
In its short-term forecast for agricultural markets, the European Commission highlights high input and energy costs, trade tensions, weather volatility, and animal diseases. Demand remains relatively resilient, but pressure on margins is high15. Although the forecast applies to the EU market as a whole, it has dual significance for Polish exporters. First, it affects costs and the continuity of supply. Second, even a brief disruption caused by disease or weather can alter the availability of raw materials, prices, and the ability to fulfill contracts.
In markets outside the EU, there are additional barriers to entry. Sanitary and phytosanitary requirements, certification, testing, labeling, product composition, and documentation vary from country to country. In its Access2Markets guide, the European Commission emphasizes that exporters must verify the rules for a specific product and market, and sometimes adapt packaging or conduct additional testing16. Geographic diversification thus increases sales potential, but at the same time raises compliance costs and operational complexity.
Environmental regulations are playing an increasingly important role. The EU Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR) will generally apply starting August 12, 2026, although some obligations will take effect later17. For food producers, this means they must review their packaging and compliance schedules, as individual obligations have different implementation deadlines.
In turn, the EUDR introduces due diligence obligations for selected supply chains related to, among other things, cattle, cocoa, coffee, soy, and palm oil, as well as their derivative products. The regulation is set to apply to large and medium-sized operators as of December 30, 2026, and to most micro and small entities as of June 30, 202718. It does not apply to the entire food sector, but within the covered categories, it increases the importance of traceability and data on the origin of raw materials.
Where to Look for Further Growth
The most realistic scenario does not involve replacing the EU market with third countries. Europe will remain the foundation of Polish exports due to the scale of demand, proximity, and the integration of supply chains. Expansion outside the EU should rather complement this foundation and reduce vulnerability to the weakening of individual markets.
In practice, this means selecting markets where Polish products have a genuine competitive advantage in terms of product quality, logistics, or price. Refrigerated products with a short shelf life require a different approach than sweets, grain products, juices, or dairy products. High sales growth should not be the sole criterion. Other factors that matter include order repeatability, sanitary barriers, promotional costs, the ability to protect margins, and the resilience of local demand.
In the European Commission’s baseline scenario, high agricultural productivity in the EU is expected to continue supporting positive trade results. The outlook through 2035 also points to pressures from climate change, the availability and prices of inputs, and global competition19.
In their baseline scenario, the OECD and FAO project a 13.3% increase in the value of global agricultural production for the group of products covered by the projection through 2035. International trade is expected to remain crucial for balancing regional supply and demand. Real international prices for agricultural products are expected to remain largely stable, though the report notes that volatility will persist20. This is not a forecast for Poland. However, it illustrates an environment in which exporters’ competitive advantage will depend less and less on simply increasing volume, and increasingly on productivity, risk management, and the ability to tailor their offerings.
A Record as a Test of Maturity
The figure of 58.4 billion euros in 2025 confirms that agri-food exports have become one of the pillars of Polish foreign trade. Its strengths lie in a large supply base, a well-developed processing sector, a broad product mix, and deep roots in the EU market. However, the start of 2026 shows that a strong market position does not automatically guarantee the continuation of double-digit growth.
In the next phase, competitive advantage will be determined not only by scale and price, but also by margin resilience, the ability to meet increasingly complex requirements, the quality of data in the supply chain, and selective diversification. A record is therefore not the finish line. It is a test of maturity for the sector, which must transform its current scale into a sustainable and more resilient position in the international market.
Jacek Białas
Growth & Brand Visibility Specialist
Listonic
Bibliography
1,4,5,7,8,10,14 National Center for Agricultural Support, “Record Exports of Agri-Food Products from Poland in 2025.”
2 Central Statistical Office, “The Country’s Socioeconomic Situation—Foreign Trade, Data for 2025.”
3,6 National Center for Agricultural Support, “Polish Food Conquers the World. Exports Have Already Exceeded 24 Billion Euros,” data for January–May 2026.
9 Eurostat, “Extra-EU Trade in Agricultural Goods,” section “Agricultural Products: Four Groups.”
11 Eurostat, “Performance of the agricultural sector”: section “Value of agricultural output.”
12 European Commission, “EU food and drinks enjoy a strong, growing reputation internationally, new flash Eurobarometer reveals.”
13 FAO, “FAO Food Price Index Dips in December Despite Higher World Cereal Prices.”
15 European Commission, “EU agricultural markets short-term outlook – summer 2026.”
16 European Commission, Access2Markets, “Guide for the export of goods.”
17 Regulation (EU) 2025/40 of the European Parliament and of the Council on packaging and packaging waste (PPWR).
18 European Commission, “Regulation on Deforestation-Free Products.”
19 European Commission, “EU Agricultural Outlook 2025–35: EU agriculture navigates challenges while embracing opportunities.”
20 OECD–FAO, “Agricultural Outlook 2026–2035.”
